I’ve been watching the Indian chickpea futures market since the government there suspended any new positions or contracts from being launched. This was an attempt to flush out speculators that may be forcing prices higher. Fancy that speculators on a futures market, what were they expecting to find there just farmers and processors, seriously guys.
Anyway, I’ve been watching the October contract. When the announcement was made to stop new positions there were 560 open positions in October. So at some stage these 560 positions had to be cleared, that’s not many. This is taking place slowly and this morning there is now 430 open positions. It’s interesting to note the price variation though. Due to the now very thin nature of trade on June 23rd business was done at roughly $1291.57/t, 4 days later it has been done at $1347.42/t and the closing value was higher again. It’s a good example of the speculator screwing the speculator but it may also be showing how little physical grain is available.

Back in the real world, well North Dakota, the durum crop is well ahead of the five year average. Around 50% of the crop is now in head and is rated well at 76% G/E. Dry conditions in the SW of the state are a stake contrast to the almost perfect conditions in the NW. Montana is a behind normal progress at 8% headed and the condition is much lower as well thanks to a dry start.