And just like that the last three days of higher closes in US soft wheat futures are eroded. It took nothing more than a reality check and a quick look at wheat production around the world.
Yes France is going to be much lower than last year, Germany and Poland also look likely to have a few issues but nothing like France. On the other side of the coin the rain that washed away the chance of a good year in France supplied good growing conditions for Bulgaria & Romania which could see record output in 2016.
You don’t have to look much further to find other countries having a bumper season, Russia and the Ukraine are both harvesting crops averaging at least 10% better in yield than the average. The US wheat crop is exceptional. CBH has just announced they will erect 400kt of additional short term storage to hold what is expected to be a huge WA winter crop, possibly passing the 15.9mt record.

Higher Euronext wheat futures did not lead European or Black Sea cash values higher. Instead the opposite has occurred and we see Paris milling wheat futures pull back €4.25/tonne on the nearby contract. Maybe the western world needs to take a leaf out of the Indian book and ban speculation. Wouldn’t that be fun, grain traders would be paying $80/t if there was no grain or plenty of grain. I’m still amazed by that move.