Prices 10/8/16

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With a WASDE report due out off the US on Friday the market seems pretty happy to tread water at present. Wheat at Chicago, Kansas and Minny were all trading a very narrow range overnight and corn pushed 3c lower. Soybeans were a little more active but ended the session only 3c in the black as well.
The main item of interest for the WASDE will be the average projected corn yield. With most crops now well and truly past the critical stages of development estimates should begin to get much closer to actual. Twitter is alive with some huge estimates, like most online resources though you only ever see the good stuff. The US trade are saying it will come in anywhere between 10.48t/ha and 10.98t/ha. With the season they have had you would have to think closer to the high side though. I’ve seen up to 15.7t/ha on twitter.

There was good strength in both ICE canola and Paris rapeseed futures last night. There’s a good chance the EU will import around 3.3mt of canola this year, this is an increase of 400kt from the July estimate. This could have a lot to do with the recent gains in our domestic basis. France is bringing milling wheat around from Romania to use as a blending base for their wheat. French wheat production gets lower in every report I pick up, some say down as low as 28mt now, that’s a far cry from 41mt last year.

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