It’s been a poor week on US grain futures. With wheat collapsing overnight we see a new 10 year low set and that’s not adjusted to the CPI.
Part of the decline in US grains came about when the US Fed Chairman Janet Yellen announced that the US was doing well and a rate hike is likely. She didn’t say when though so let’s see what the speculators suggest in the short term. The US dollar strengthened on the back of the announcement.

Egypt picked up 180kt of Russian wheat at US$182.25 C&F. The only offers came from Black Sea suppliers. Black Sea rates to Egypt are about US$10.00 / tonne, so it’s about US$172 FOB, around US$5.00 under the last offer. It’s roughly AUD$165 NTP NTL. The grade would be low but not feed grade. If white wheat is worth an extra $25 and a grade spread is worth $15 than it would make something like good APW at Newcastle worth roughly $205, still well under current domestic bids here.

Chinese corn is now worth around 1800Y delivered end user, about AUD$360 / tonne. That’s a fall of about AUD$120 in the last 12 months. Subsidies have been changed again, this time to an acre sown basis not a tonnage basis and may result in further losses.