Market reports, I’ll rephrase that and say “Official” market reports, like those from the USDA, StatsCanada, ABARE, the big reports the ones from the guys that are supposed to be unbiased and up to date.
The question is, do we put too much faith in them. I’m asking this after reading the last StatsCanada report, particularly in regards to canola. Earlier this week the Canadian officials increased the 2015 crop by 1.15mt up to 18.38mt, this is a crop that was harvested 12 months ago, a production number that should have been known but alas it was not. As Canadian farmers got ready for the 2016 harvest there was a big increase in canola sales, Canadian farmers had stored much more canola on farm than what the major data collectors had thought. Most punters had though carry over was going to be around 1.27mt but instead it now turns out it is well over 2mt.
Now combine inadequate reporting like this with news like that out of China suggesting they will increase soybean production by 56% over the next 4 years and rapeseed by 10%. You start to see why a reliable production number is necessary as soon as possible, not 12 months later. Hopefully the Chinese soybean and canola increases will come at the expense of corn and sorghum area.

Overnight markets were slightly firmer in anticipation of better numbers in Monday’s USDA report, I think they are dreaming.