The punters are still driving the currency markets. This time around we see them factoring no rate adjustments on cup day but they do appear to be leaning towards local rate cuts in the first quarter of next year.
With inflation once again well below projected levels and the dollar, up until last night, sitting much higher than desired, even at the current rate of 75.9, there does appear to be a growing number of punters tipping a rate cut early next year that they think will do two things, stimulate inflation and drop the value of our dollar to make exports more competitive.

As producers of exportable products this leaves you with potentially some Aussie dollar exposure, well not really exposure but it does prevent you from being able to part take in the upside in local prices a fall in the dollar might create early next year, if indeed it does fall, against prompt sales made at harvest. A punting man may well look to take some kind of coverage so they can try and pickup some of the downside in the dollar in the new year and place the P or L against their harvest sales.

Generally the markets in the US were flat to slightly firmer. Nearby canola was flat in Canada and flat to softer in the EU. The weaker AUD will tend to counter any moves lower today. IGC monthly report summary link below, basically there’s too much wheat.