US soybean futures were the big winner last night and as we know for every big winner we need a big loser and in this case it was the South American farmer. Heavy rain continues to fall across the major soybean producing region of Argentina and Brazil.
Harvest in Brazil is usually well under way by March and Argentina about April.
Some rain at this stage of the growth cycle is fine but parts of Argentina have seen over 400 mills in the last 30 days and crops are now simply drowning. Further north in Brazil there was talk of a few very early fields being very close to harvest, the odds are against this now as the heaviest rain in Brazil has been across the northern soybean belt.
The big winner, if Argentine soybean production is lowered is of course the USA, their exports will fill the gap as they did last year. The old saying of “where beans go canola goes” is also ringing true this morning with both ICE canola and Paris rapeseed creeping higher in overnight trade.

Heavy rain across the hard red wheat belt in the USA capped gains in the wheat pit but there was support as warmer weather in the Ukraine has melted snow cover on small wheat crops there leaving the fields open to winter kill if temperatures drop low enough prior to further snow. News US wheat was some US$10-15 higher than Russian values into Egypt also stalled any rally in wheat.