Prices 01/5/17

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Canola is interesting this morning, either there was some spread trade between ICE and Paris May futures getting liquidated last night, i.e. buy Paris sell Winnipeg, (or maybe some bargain option punting) or all this chatter about how dry it is in France and how big the Canadian canola crop is going to be is playing out.
A closer look at both exchanges shows that outer month futures for both locations were nowhere near as volatile as the nearby May contract that is about to expire. At the ICE volume on the May was 2,000 contracts, Paris 873, I’ll let you be the judge of what was actually happening.

Hard red wheat futures at Chicago were firmer as was soft wheat. This would see HRW up almost 20c/bu this week, just under AUD$10 / tonne. With Paris, London and Chicago wheat futures moving higher this week it leaves one to wonder why new crop prices here slipped $5.00 as our dollar shed almost 1c for the week. Forward contracting doesn’t pick up the basis premium it used to.
Cold weather continues to delay spring wheat planting in N.America and also leaves winter wheat in NW Kansas and Nebraska at some degree of frost risk over the weekend.

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