US wheat futures lead the rest of the grains higher in overnight trade. It’s more of the same, dry weather in the US spring wheat belt, dry weather in Australia and dry weather in some parts of Europe.
I’m not sold that Europe is about to have a failure, the spring was very dry in parts and many expect to see below average yields in crops like rapeseed in particular but production estimates for crops like winter wheat are still fairly good.
I like the GFS model, it’s generally pretty accurate for the 5 days it predicts. In the USA rainfall over that period is expected to be mostly east of the Mississippi. The central corn belt and soft red winter wheat states all see good showers. Rain may also stall the Kansas harvest in the SE of the state. The spring wheat belt is expecting some light showers on Sunday but once again the model suggest the heaviest falls will not be across the driest areas. Up in Saskatchewan they do expect to see a few more showers but like the US the heaviest falls will not be across the durum belt but instead further north in the already saturated canola districts.

The international markets will probably start to get some decent mileage out of the  unfolding drought in Australia over the next couple of weeks. This will be needed to keep this rally alive otherwise it may end up just being US based and fund driven.