Prices 22/6/17
US wheat futures retreated a little last night after spring wheat set a new high in the overnight session.
This is basically a technical correction allowing for some profit taking after the recent weeks.
Fundamentally you would have to say that weather maps around the world are all tending to support wheat at present. At this stage this is not manifesting itself as record sales as the consumers get coverage though. This is a transition period and is likely to see both technical and consumer driven moves prior to reality taking some form of control.
A quick look around the world shows US spring wheat and the Aussie crops are probably the two in the worst situation. Western Europe and the Ukraine are having a few issues with hot temperatures and a few dry spot but Europe is still expected to produce more wheat than last year. Most wheat crops are nearing harvest in the EU and Ukraine. Any pruning of yields west of the Black Sea are expected to be well compensated for by better production estimates in Russia. Some actually peg the Russian crop at only slightly below last years record.
Durum is the crop to watch. The worst conditions around the world are generally around the durum area’s.