Prices 14/2/18

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US wheat futures took a breather with corn moving in sympathy with wheat while soybeans continued to march higher at Chicago.
The dry weather in Argentina was the key to soybeans while the main impact on US wheat futures was the lower outside market influence but the weaker US dollar did seem to put a floor in the market. There was also a level of profit taking in the wheat pit after the higher close yesterday.
Technically we see US wheat futures overbought again even with the funds estimated to be holding a net short of around 9.5mt in wheat alone. This may cap any attempt US wheat futures make to move higher in the short term.

China sold 280kt of wheat out of their reserves on their domestic market Tuesday and managed a price of US$384.46 / tonne. How this converts back to a price delivered anywhere is anyone’s guess at present but that is a hefty price to pay, AUD $488 no matter where it is.
Around the world we continue to see 2018 wheat production estimates lower than 2017. Generally due to smaller sown areas. Most FSU states are reducing sown area and we are also seeing reductions in the USA and most likely in Canada and Australia. France has also reduced acres for both wheat and oilseeds.
ABARES pegged the 2017 – 18 Aussie wheat crop at 21.2mt and sorghum at 1.47mt, barley at 8.93mt, canola 3.67mt.

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