The US soybean market rallied half a cent per bushel last night. Not exactly a $12Bn shot in the arm. Even the announcement the EU made suggesting they will import much more US soybeans wasn’t enough to push a trader into the buying side.
Wheat futures at Chicago and Minneapolis were flat to lower, the weaker contracts were at Chicago while the spring wheat contract continued to find support from less than expected yield expectations from the spring wheat crop tour in the US upper Midwest. Otherwise lower on the back of ideas yesterday may have been a little over cooked at Chicago.

Analyst are coming to the consensus that the chance of Russia announcing export bans is next to zero. Stocks of Russian wheat will still be fairly large even if the quality in some regions isn’t great. The chance of using export bans to keep stocks of even good quality milling wheat available at a domestic level does appear to be remote once the numbers are crunched. The food price CPI in Russia is also very low at present.

A quick look at the world ag weather shows showers across much of the USA and Canada keeping the spring wheat wet and finishing off the summer crops nicely. More heavy rain across Ukraine and Eastern Russia but drying out across the Volga Valley. Europe sees more heavy rain in the west while much of France and Germany remain dry. Sweden is calling 4t/ha wheat a disaster.