The US futures market saw a little technical trade ahead of the USDA report due out tonight. The previous gains this week had left Dec wheat a little over bought but last night’s sell down should go a long way to seeing SRW and HRW futures heading into the report fairly neutral. The punters were happy to call slow US export pace their main fundamental weakness.

The Russians continue to poke the US with a stick. Most analyst, well western ones, agree that Russia is likely to slow export pace significantly in the first quarter of next year. Much of the strength in US wheat futures is based around this assumption. Deputy Ag Minister Dzhambulat Khatuov  was said to have suggested that up to 35mt (+1mt) of wheat could be exported from Russia without any significant increase in internal wheat values.
The current level of Russian wheat exports this marketing year was estimated at 15.2mt as of about two weeks ago.

There’s not a lot more to report on the global front as most traders and analyst await the USDA report. There’s plenty of speculation on what Australian production and exports will be. Canadian production and exports are also expected to come under scrutiny.