Some more regurgitated USDA data and some “good progress” in the USA / China trade debate couldn’t make a mark in US futures last night. The only product that really showed a pulse was spring wheat futures. The MGEX nearby contract rallied about $4.60 / tonne. Outer months for US spring wheat futures also closed higher on the back of lower planted area. Keep an eye on US durum sown area in May.
The USDA managed to rain on the parade though as better yields are expected to see US wheat production actually increase by 1% year on year. Their season is shaping up to have a good start as long as there are no late frosts. It will also depend if earlier expectations of winter kill in the SRW are not as bad as some feared.
The smoke and mirrors continued with the USDA increasing domestic demand in order to counter some of their export issues. The export sales data for the last couple weeks are not too bad though with the US selling about 3.57mt of wheat. The punters were lining up around 2 to 3 million tonnes so it did result in some technical buying in futures. Asian markets and Nigeria dominated the US sales books.
Physical exports still lag and most see little chance of the US actually meeting the USDA target now.

Durum prices in SW Saskatchewan are generally unchanged with the old crop bid at roughly C$235 ex farm while the new crop for an August pickup is bid at C$234. On the back of an envelope this would go close to indicating that new crop Aussie DR1 may come in somewhere around $330 up country NSW.