US wheat futures were generally flat to softer. Talk of bigger US spring wheat acres to be sown took the edge off the HRS wheat contract at the MGEX, HRS was the only grade to find some upside in recent days. There is talk of increased durum acres in the US as well. This is also expected to push north into Canadian sowing intentions too.
The big decline in canola values in recent weeks combined with continued Canadian export issues into China will most likely deter growers there from sowing big acres in 2019. From the demand side we see the swine flu issues in China also reducing demand for soymeal by up to 30% in some locations. This in turn could continue to put downward pressure on the entire oilseed complex.
It’s starting to look like a year to play it safe.
Even barley is under the influence of China with a current anti dumping case in front of the WTO. China has the ability to put tariffs / sanctions on certain sellers under review, Graincorp, ADM, CBH and Glencore. The tariffs are not expected to be anything near the 66% India placed on chickpeas last year but the punters are expecting to see a tariff of 5% to 10% put on Aussie barley sometime next week.

The CME Platts Aussie FOB wheat contract, although not trading, saw a reduction in value of US1.00 / tonne so now priced at US$269.75 / tonne FOB Australia. As this is a non deliverable, grade of wheat isn’t a issue, nor location.  Looking at the July Platts, US$268.25 and ASX wheat for July AUD$369 and converting to USD FOB does come up with a similar value but potentially placing ASX higher.