The marketing term  “dead cat bounce” comes to mind this morning. It’s doesn’t matter from what height the cat is thrown, if it’s dead it may still bounce but it ain’t going to get up and run away. That sums up the US wheat futures market pretty nicely at present. After a healthy looking rally in “technical Tuesday” reality reared its ugly head again and wheat shed 25% of the Tuesday’s gain.
Officially the decline was contributed to profit taking on the back of Tuesday’s gain. So I guess the funds were not “too” short Afterall.

The punters are expecting to see US wheat exports around 450kt to 750kt in tomorrow’s weekly US export sales report. A close towards the upper end of that prediction may well see further short covering at Chicago on Friday night.

Tunisia picked up durum wheat in a mixed tender overnight. Casillo moved 2 parcels, one 25kt lot at US$279.49 and one 17kt lot at US$281.89 CFR. This would equate to roughly AUD$320 NTP NTL well below current Aussie expectations for both old and new crop durum. I can’t find a confirmation on grade at this stage but if it is comparable to DR3 it may not look as bad as it reads.