Between the Brexit deals and the US / China trade negotiations it’s hard to keep focused on things that have a fundamental impact on trade, things like production or you know, good old fashion supply and demand.
I remember when I was first learning about futures and world markets and we used a card game as a teaching tool. Each card represented an event that was plausible in nature…….and then there was the joker. It represented political events that were unforeseen. I remember seeing a very good position I had in the game eroded quickly by the joker as it represented the USA invading Iraq the first time.

So Boris Johnson has struck a deal for the Oct 31 exit. He now simply needs to get it through parliament, probably not as easy as it sounds considering the DUP is already saying they will reject it. In the event of it failing to pass we also have the EU saying they are happy to extend the dead line again. There is some talk that the UK has thrown N.Ireland under the bus but as with all things political the devil will be in the detail.
The spin in the grain markets was that the Brexit (deal / no deal) allowed punters to take a closer look at the impact that last week’s winter storm had on US grains. Talk of perished crops, lower than expected yields and slow harvest progress were key phrases in last night’s US markets. We didn’t hear “parking funds” or “safe haven investments” mentioned as much as they probably should have been. At the end of the day this rally in US wheat futures will continue to make US wheat even less affordable on the world market.