The USDA World Ag Supply & Demand report was out last night, it wasn’t pretty for wheat. Most other grains got away relatively unscathed but a sharp increase in world wheat production and carry-over stocks saw US wheat futures retreat.

So world wheat production was estimated at 773.43mt (Last Mth 768.49mt), how do we look at this number. Well increases were in Australia which is now up 2mt to 26mt, looking at the season you have to say that’s a plausible bet at the moment. India is up from 103mt to 107.18mt, a new record for India if realised.  China was increased 1mt, now pegged at 136mt.
World ending stocks were estimated to be a new record high of 316.09mt but we also need to realise that China and India hold 192.57mt of this, that’s almost 61% of world ending stocks “stored” in two non-exporting countries. It’s still too high to see any chance of an international rally though. We really need some more issues to arise in one of the N.Hemisphere exporters to get a move higher now.
Russia was left at 77mt but Ukraine was reduced 1.5mt to 26.5mt this basically resulted in Russian projected exports being increased while Ukraine exports were reduced, the USDA did manage to lose a half a million tonnes of export sales in the Black Sea shuffle though thus increasing stocks in that region.
Interesting to note N.African wheat demand was left unchanged, I thought they may have been increased a little given the dry finish there.
Canadian cash values were flat to firmer, 1CWAD13 durum up C$2.63 for a December 2020 pickup.