US soft wheat futures closed under 500c/bu last night. That’s the 3rd time since mid-May and only the 4th time this year. The last couple of times the move under 500 seems to have triggered some buying in the nearby contract which soon rallied.
Technically nearby soft wheat at Chicago is oversold and due for a correction higher but it’s the middle of harvest in the USA and this is preventing the market getting away at present.
In the US most punters expect to see wheat move higher in July / August / September this year but overall the consensus is that unless there are major productions issues somewhere else in the world that the market will struggle to move past any post-harvest rallies.
Current premiums for HRW (11%) with protein at 13% is around AUD$24. Locally we see the premium between 11.5% and 13% closer to evens or about $5.00. Don’t get caught up on multigrade spreads just yet.

The reduction in corn crop quality in the weekly USDA crop progress report offered initial support but wheat set an overall bearish tone which rippled through the other grains and saw corn close the session flat to a smidge firmer. The fall in wheat values there were said to have been a result of a better outlook for the spring wheat crop that triggered a round of technical selling, so funds taking profit.
Production estimates for the Russian wheat crop are varied spread between 77mt and 83mt. Analyst closer to the production source are generally a little higher than the USDA, with some there expecting to see above average yields across all but the region around Stavropol.