Technically wheat futures at Chicago continue to look very oversold, as they have for a week now, but it made little difference with another session closing lower. The only day with a higher close this week was Monday. In Aussie dollar terms Chicago soft red winter wheat futures for the December slot shed just under AUD$9.00 for the week, compared to local APW slipping $12 NTP NTL.

In Saskatchewan the weekly crop progress report shows a modest decline in rating. Although declining, the quality of durum, spring and winter wheat in Saskatchewan is still good when compared to the five year average. What we do continue to see emerging is an increasing premium for northern spring wheat over hard red winter wheat. Reports out of the US confirming HRW protein is a little lower than desired is widening this spread. In June alone we have seen the spread in Dec futures move from +63c to +96c/bu, an increase of just under AUD$18 / tonne.
In N.Dakota spring wheat was rated 78% G/E while durum was still rated at 73% G/E, we will need to see a decline in both the US condition rating and the Canadian rating to see prices continue to firm. Spring wheat (1CWRS13.5) values in SW Saskatchewan were firmer overnight, with a bid of C$235 available for a December pickup. This would roughly equate to a value of at least AUD$375 NTP NTL, well above the current APH1 bid at Newcastle. 1CWAD13 out of SW Sask was flat at C$267 for a Dec home, a rough conversion to a comparable Aussie value would see DR1 priced around AUD$412 port.