The International Grains Council, IGC, had their monthly stab at world grain S&Ds yesterday. Global wheat production was called 765mt, up 1mt on last month, they increased consumption 1mt and increased world ending stocks 1mt to 292mt. This is a 13mt increase in ending stocks year on year and has been the major hurdle for higher prices throughout 2020.
The positives were in corn and soybeans, both seeing year on year decreases in carry-over stocks, corn back 23mt and beans back 4mt compared to last year. Global carry over of soybeans is now estimated at 45mt, compared to 62mt back in 18/19. The major exporters are expected to carry over just 12mt of soybeans into the new season.
Numbers like this should keep the global oilseed market well supported. A quick look at the rainfall anomaly map for Brazil shows another supporting influence, dry weather. Much of the major soybean districts have seen less than average rainfall over the last 14 days, some parts just 40% of the average. The 30 days map doesn’t look a lot better. Further south in Argentina it looks even worse, the 30 day map revealing vast areas of Argentina have seen just 20% – 40% of normal rainfall over the last 30 days.

Russia sold Egypt 175kt of wheat at an average price of US$275.11, almost exactly the same price as a few weeks ago. I’ve attached a chart of previous Egyptian purchases showing values and where the grain was acquired.