Argentina’s wheat crop, a crop that was rated at 52% poor on October 14th, is now 39% harvested. During the harvest period we’ve seen crop condition ratings improve. The trade are suggesting thanks to the late rain but we all know how late rain can impact on a crop, especially one that was rated at 50% poor just 6 – 8 weeks prior to harvest. The latest report shows just 21% of the wheat crop is now rated poor, with 50% rated as fair. Call me sceptical but I’m thinking crop forecasting in Argentina may have a ways to come.

The latest StatsCan report is out, canola production is back 700kt from the September estimate, 19.4mt to 18.7mt. This saw a sharp increase in both the ICE futures contract for canola and cash bids out of SW Saskatchewan. Cash bids for a Feb 21 lift jumped C$8.67 per tonne according to price reporting service PDQ. Cash prices were quoted to be C$562.01 / tonne. On the back of an envelope this would convert to something close to AUD$680 Australian port. Cash bids to growers in WA are closer to AUD$610 delivered port (+/- P&Ds), which you would think makes Australian canola look very cheap at the international level.
The StatsCan report pegged the Canadian all wheat crop at 35.183mt, the biggest crop in 7 years. Broken down we see durum estimated at 6.571mt, spring wheat at 25.841mt and winter wheat at 2.77mt.
Durum bids for 1CWAD13 out of SW Saskatchewan were slightly higher with a Feb21 lift bid at C$298. The stronger AUD will eliminate any upside in that conversion, so expect local values here to move sideways again today.