I get a lot of emails and I read a lot of market analysis, some more reliable than others. For a while now the bears have been talking about the demise of the latest “commodities super cycle” (are we in one yet). Current prices are far from the highs of 2007-2008 prior to the GFC but the punters, who are obviously on the short side of the current market, are talking about a significant correction in Sept 2021.
Personally I’m not entering into the spinning dart board game, the emotional train crash that is the fund managers investment portfolio but I do like to read the fundamental and technical reasoning behind some of these predictions and some state a just case.

Back in the land of reality, well the US futures market…….yeah ok, somewhere just a step or two away from reality. Wheat, corn and soybean futures all finished in the black. The HRW contract the best wheat, still finding support from last week’s freeze and the weaker US dollar. Technically SRW for the May 21 slot at Chicago is overbought. One might expect to see current levels harder to sustain without some fundamentally good news in the short term. The same could be said for HRW. Corn futures for May are fairly neutral, while May soybeans are starting to push into the overbought side of the chart. Soybeans are enjoying significant fundamental strength for the short to medium term though.
ICE canola futures chart resembles a roller coaster ride. Last night saw the nearby contract back C$30, May21 back C$10.60. Open interest and volume in the March is minimal, caught and short. Paris rapeseed was firmer across the board, May21 up E12.50, Feb22 +E4.25 !!