The International Grains Council (EU’s USDA) came out with their monthly stab in the dark for grain production. Wheat production for 2020-21 was increased 5mt to 773mt thanks to bigger crops in Russia (85.3mt / 84.5mt), Kazakhstan (14.3mt / 12.4mt) and Australia (33.3mt . 31.2mt) a new record for Australian wheat production.
An increase in consumption countered the increase in production keeping projected ending stocks at 294mt. Keep in mind that in this month’s USDA World Ag Supply and Demand report China (154.93mt) and India (31.32mt) were holding around 64% of the world carry over wheat stocks, both countries are unlikely to become net exporters.
India’s Farm Ministry announced they will harvest a record 109.24mt of wheat this year. Many feel that this is a little optimistic. Canola production was also projected at 10.4mt, a 1.3mt increase on last year. Indian officials are also estimating a year on year increase in chickpea production. Current production estimates are at 11.62mt (11.08mt LY). In an ironic twist Indian officials are stated they are a little worried about the storage capability of the “winter” crop that is about to get underway.
This may also come as a reminder to us that just because “official” carry-over stocks in some countries, like India, are high. Reports seldom state the quality of the carry over stock.
Cash bids for wheat out of the US PNW saw HRW slip in line with futures values, as did spring wheat. White wheat values continue to be unchanged. The weaker AUD should assist to stabilise prices here today.