US futures were again mixed but generally trading lower. Wheat and soybeans in the nearby and outer months were lower while corn found support nearby but struggled to carry that momentum into the outer months. The weather forecast in the US remains good and crop ratings are not atrocious. There is still 4-6 weeks before wheat is out of the frost window though.
The trade shrugged off news of yet another big corn sale to China. 1.22mt was booked, that’s the second big sale this week the trade have simply battered an eyelid at. Increased ethanol production in the US was also considered bullish corn by some but not the futures market. US ethanol production is slowly clawing its way back to pre-coronavirus levels of 1 million plus barrels / day.
Chicago soybean futures found weakness from rainfall reports in Argentina. Seven day rainfall reading across the major soybean producing regions of Argentina are up around 25-70mm. There were also some much higher readings to the far north of Cordoba where falls of 120-150mm were reported. The big question is, has this rain fallen too late.
The weaker soybean market rolled through to trigger speculative selling in both ICE canola and Paris rapeseed futures.

An indicator of how bad the ASF outbreak in China may be is the sudden jump in piglet prices. The latest strain of ASF is said to be spreading much more easily than previous strains. The recent outbreak threatens to derail the recovery in Chinese pig production that was devastated, slipping to a 20 year low after ASF struck the herd in 2018-19. The current off turn rate is high as producers cash in stock.