Argentine sorghum for May / June movement is offered at US$220 port. Using China as a home this number roughly equates to around an equivalent delivered Newcastle port number of about AUD$340. At the moment the trade appear to be happy to keep local Australian values closer to AUD$295 -AUD$300 at the port which tends to indicate they may have a bit up there sleeve.

Overnight corn futures in the States moved higher dragging wheat and soybean futures at Chicago along for the ride. Canola futures on the ICE didn’t miss the boat and also rallied C$10.10 on the nearby contract which closed at C$817.20 per tonne. Cash bids across SW Saskatchewan were also firm with canola ex farm there bid on average at C$763.16 for a July lift. Using China as a home out of the PNW gives an old crop Aussie port price comparable to almost AUD$900 per tonne. A number we’ll probably never see. Current basis remains historically very, very low at -AUD$202.84 under the nearby ICE futures contract.
New crop cash bids for canola out of SW Sask come in at C$605 ex farm. Using the same comparison as the old crop, using China as a home, we see that this number comes in close to AUD$728 Aussie port equivalent. Current new crop bid here are closer to AUD$625, there appears to be a lot of fat in that arbitrage too. ICE new crop basis isn’t as bad as old crop at -AUD$31 but that is still very low. Usually with a forward contract we might expect to see basis closer to +AUD$40. Is this telling the canola grower that new crop hedging might be best done with swaps in 2021 not the cash market. Canadian durum was flat, while new crop spring wheat there and in the US was higher.