The three forecasting models used by World Ag Weather .com all tell a similar story for the US and Canadian spring wheat belt. The Canadian model is particularly pessimistic with next to nothing showing for the parched regions of southern Saskatchewan, including N.Dakota and eastern Montana. The GFS model looks a little better with the potential for a storm on Saturday. The Euro model is a mix, storms pushing across the prairies on Friday afternoon but generally slipping south by Saturday missing the Canadian durum belt.
Combine the poor rainfall outlook with a hotter than average fortnight ahead and you have a very real recipe for further upside in the prime wheat market and the canola market. Social media is already seeing plenty of pictures of failed wheat crops and struggling canola from N.America. If the weather prediction is correct the volume of these images in only likely to increase.

Overnight the sharp move higher in spring wheat values spilled over into the higher grade wheat contract at Chicago, dragging HRWW values higher by the close. Minneapolis spring wheat futures pushed about 800c/bu (AUD$294) again, the cash market now knocking on the door of 900c/bu, bid at 893c/bu (AUD$328) at the close.
At the Pacific North West ports spring wheat bids for export were also stronger, averaging 905c/bu for a Sept lift on 14% protein. Using Japan as an end point this roughly equated to a Newcastle port price close to AUD$403 / tonne.
There were a number of wheat tenders introduced overnight, Ethiopia 400kt, Iran was in and Taiwan 55kt of US milling wheat.