The International Grains Council, IGC, had their monthly stab at the world grain market S&D last night. The take home message from the report was lower carry in and low carry out thanks to increased demand for corn, wheat, soybeans and sorghum from China and lower corn production in Brazil.
The excellent summer season to date in the USA saw increases to soybean production taking global soybean production to a record 383 million tonnes, up 20mt on 2020. World corn production is expected to increase as China is predicted to harvest around 273mt, just over 5mt more than last year. This should help stabilise world feed grain prices but direction will depend greatly on the quality of the global wheat crop. The IGC reduced global wheat production by 1mt on last month’s estimate, now at 789mt and still a record.
Although corn and wheat production could both be potential production records both grains are seeing good increases in demand from the food, feed (China increasing pig inventory after ASF) and industrial sectors, thus resulting in minimal increases in carry over, if any.

In the US we continue to see a widening gap between winter and spring wheat values. On June 23rd ND Wheat put out their latest crop update for US spring and durum wheat. North Dakota spring wheat was rated at just 19% G/E, durum was a little better at 51% G/E. Minnesota and Montana fared better but the S.Dakota rating was crushed, with just 5% of the spring wheat there rated G/E. Around 3% of the ND durum crop is now in head. The hot dry weather is seeing many field run to head prematurely.