The drought across the US spring wheat belt and Canadian Prairies is now the main driving force in wheat futures, as one might expect.
If you are not following my twitter account or joined the Dolbel Consulting Facebook group please do. I’ve been sharing the odd picture from the field across N.America and they really do tell the story.
Once again Minneapolis spring wheat futures lead the US wheat contracts higher. With temperatures expected to push as high as 39C across parts of the Red River Valley today crops that have been struggling will basically throw the towel in. The heat comes on the back of a mostly dry fortnight for many producers and with rain not expected within the next 7 days it appears the damage can only get worse. Fields that were expected to produce 4.5 – 5.0t/ha just 4-5 weeks ago are now being pegged at less than 1t/ac in some cases.
Look for further reductions in spring wheat crop ratings in next week’s USDA crop progress report and in the ND Wheat Commissions weekly update due out tonight.
In a cruel twist of fate wet weather is expected to continue to hamper the last of the HRWW harvest in Kansas and Nebraska and could potentially create disease issues for the soft red winter wheat crop across the corn belt. Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are all expected to see falls of 30-50mm again over the next 7 days. A dream run for corn, a nightmare for ripening wheat.
Heavy rain across parts of Germany is expected to ease, allowing closer field assessment and quantifying crop losses after severe flooding across the west and south and small parts of East Germany over the last week. Heavy rain has also been recorded across SE France.