The Stats Canada data is out and it going to set the durum price on fire. Canadian durum production now estimated at just 3.99mt. There was a surge in local cash prices across SE Saskatchewan on the back of the data. PDQ report gains of C$64.99 per tonne for a December lift with the average cash price closing at C$796.07 per tonne, January closing above C$800. For the sake of the exercise using Italy as a consumer this price would be comparable to roughly AUD$1000 ex farm Liverpool Plains.
The data showed all wheat production for Canada at just 22.947mt. In the August WASDE report Canadian wheat production was reduced from 31.5mt to 24mt. So there is scope for further reductions to the September WASDE in a couple of weeks. Spring wheat came in at 16.1mt versus last year at 25.84mt. Spring wheat values didn’t rally, instead values were caught up in profit taking and price pressure spilling over from the MGEX where September and December values converged. Spring wheat bids across SE Sask for a Dec lift actually slipped C$1.03 to C$381.57 per tonne.
Canola was another one we were waiting to see what StatsCan was going to come up with. They didn’t disappoint reducing production to just 14.748mt compared to 19.48mt last year. ICE and Paris futures may have been caught up in a bit of buy the rumour / sell the fact trade, both slipping overnight.
Canada usually pump out a few hundred thousand tonnes of chickpeas too, not in 2021, just 63kt of production being expected.
Canadian barley was pegged at 7.835mt, Sunflowers were zero, not sure if this is correct, usually they are 50kt to 100kt, so it may be.