01/10/21 Prices

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The USDA released their quarterly grain stocks report overnight which had an impact on US futures. Chicago corn and soybean futures were generally lower, soybeans much so. The weaker close in Chicago beans rolled through the entire oilseeds complex resulting in losses in both Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola futures.
In the cash market Ukraine rapeseed into the Black Sea FOB market was also a little softer. Cash bids across SE Saskatchewan also stumbled shedding C$3.79 for a December lift. French values FOB Rouen were shown at US$725.75 for an Oct / Jan spread.  In Aussie dollar values we are likely to see a decline in local prices, if they reflect the change in the AUD and international cash markets of around AUD$7.00 today. The lower futures markets may see a bit of the Friday jitters creep in though.
The higher than expected opening stocks for US soybeans was unexpected, hence the immediate reaction. Although opening stocks are still very low the number isn’t as tight as expected.
Wheat was the clear winner in the report. Stocks are much lower than a year ago and came in lower than trade expectations hence the jump in US futures. Good prices have seen plenty of US grower selling over the last three months resulting in a sharp decline in grower held stocks year on year. Lower than average yields this year will also see a sharp reduction in US carry out. Some of the production numbers for wheat grades were well above trade estimates while other grades were lower. White wheat production was a little higher than the punters had expected to see.  While hard and spring wheat production were both a bit lower than the average pre report estimates.

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