29/9/21 Prices
Paris rapeseed futures moved higher in overnight trade, as did Black Sea offers. Winnipeg canola futures found a little upside on the nearby contract but outer months were generally lower. Local basis for Australian canola remains very low compared to traditional basis values, especially against the Canadian market, understandable there though considering their drought.
With some of the trade putting a big emphasis on the completion of the ISCC survey, suggesting that it is due to so much of the local crop making its way to the EU market. One can only assume that local prices should in turn be heavily influenced by EU values, should they not.
If this is the case than the E5.75 jump in February Paris rapeseed futures would be more likely to be reflected in local values today than the C$0.70c decline in Winnipeg January futures, would they not ? (we really need a sarcasm emoji don’t we).
The decline in US values had more to do with weaker outside markets and the stronger US dollar overnight than any major shift in grain market fundamentals. If this is the case one might be able to assume that a basis improvement would be in order to void any impact on local values….where is that emoji.
Russian weekly wheat exports were said to be 1mt. The export tax on Russian wheat is slowing Russian exports though. Current wheat exports are down around 22% on the same time last year. With the export tax moving higher from today, from US$50.90/t to US$53.50 per tonne, we should continue to see Black Sea wheat values climb, which they have done now for about 11 weeks.