Seeing some conflicting reports out of Russia regarding the quantity and quality of the wheat crop. For most of the growing season the Russian wheat crop has simply been getting bigger and bigger with some reports suggesting that a crop as large of 97.5mt was on the cards. As fanciful as that estimate may have appeared to be it did suggest that the Russian wheat crop was on the larger side of historical production.
Cue the July WASDE report where the Russian wheat crop was pegged at 81.5mt, a half a million tonnes up on the June estimate, but nothing near 97.5mt.  The next WASDE is due out at the end of this week. Yes, WASDE data can be a little older than last week but at this time of year the estimates should be getting close to the final number.
The announcement that Russian exports may be reduced because of a recent reduction in yield potential in the later wheat may just be a scape goat statement used to cover the delays due to the logistical restraints and sanctions possibly reducing the ability of Russia to export its projected tonnage.
If Russia states, their production volume is reduced it has two affects. One it doesn’t load up ending stocks, pressuring longer term wheat prices and two, it will tend to influence nearby prices to move higher. Are they simply talking their book ?
Either way the trade will take a lot more notice of what number is in Friday night’s WASDE than what is coming out of the Kremlin.

Minneapolis spring wheat futures and cash prices for DNS wheat out of the PNW rallied in overnight trade. The reduction in the G/E rating for US spring wheat in yesterday’s USDA weekly crop condition report was a key driver. The rally in spring wheat futures was nothing compared to the move in Chicago soybean futures though, the nearby putting on a massive 73.75c/bu. Cash bids for US beans were mixed, basis +30c to -10c depending on location.