14/9/22 Prices

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The USDA weekly US crop progress report was overshadowed by the USDA WASDE report this week, but the crop progress report did carry some information worth noting.
Corn condition and progress is the main interest. With 77% of the crop now dented agronomists are starting to get a much better idea of what final yields may look like. Officially just 5% of the US corn crop is harvested, mainly in the south, Texas 64% complete, Kansas 21%.  As harvest moves north the importance of the condition rating will make way for actual yield data.
The fall in the week-to-week G/E rating from 43/11 = 54% to 41/12 = 53% was probably worth a look. We haven’t seen a sub 54% G/E rating at this time of year since 2013. Variety and genetics have come a long way since then, but 150bu/ac versus Monday night’s WASDE estimate of 172.5bu/ac are a fair way apart. I still can’t help but conclude that the USDA still have some yield adjustments to do in futures WASDE’s.
The Cotton rating and soybean rating also fell away. Sorghum is 23% harvested and rated at just 19/1 = 20% G/E. US spring wheat harvest moved on to 85% complete, just 4% behind the 5-year average pace and 14% further along week on week.
US white wheat values out of the PNW were sharply higher in AUD terms overnight. Obviously, the AUD/USD conversion is playing a big role in price comparisons this morning but there was also a significant rally in the USD price FOB as well.

French durum values out of Port La Nouvelle were also higher, over AUD$30 higher, combine this with firmer Canadian values and thing could look up. the spread between 1CWRS13.5 milling wheat and 1CWAD13 durum wheat out of SE Saskatchewan now just C$2.61, in favour of durum.

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