Chicago wheat and corn futures enjoyed some upside last night. Soybean futures were hit hard with news Covid cases in China are climbing quickly.
The markets continue to struggle with large case numbers, these case numbers are generally not equating to deaths and less mouths to feed.
This has been the case around the world for much of 2021-22. The media pushing the bigger more dramatic number, cases, versus the actual impact the disease has had on most ordinary people. The government policies have had a much, much bigger impact on consumer markets. By far the most disruptive side to this pandemic has been the failure of preventative policies implemented by state and federal politics. Thus, whether the disease if nothing more than the cold or flu or a death ray from heaven above is irrelevant to markets, it is the policies surrounding the disease that need a cure.

With soybean futures at Chicago lower on the back of increased covid cases in China, and a potential record Brazilian soybean crop the oilseed market did feel the pressure. Soymeal futures were also lower, as were Winnipeg canola for the March > November slots. Paris rapeseed futures were also hit hard. The Paris Feb23 slot shed E10.25 per tonne (AUD$16.00 / tonne) so expect to see some pressure on local canola bids here today even with the weaker AUD. The direct conversion difference, without any basis variations, does indicate an AUD fall in canola values of around AUD$9.00 is possible.

Wheat futures here should find support, not only from the weaker Aussie dollar today but also from a nice jump in Chicago wheat future. The rally there fuelled not only by the technical side of the market but also from the Russian bombing, and subsequent closure of parts of Odessa port on the weekend. Export operations have since started up again, but it continues to reiterate the volatility of the situation on the Black Sea.