US corn and wheat futures were generally sideways overnight. Kansas and Minneapolis wheat found some upside, SRWW futures at Chicago were a little lower. The AUD will spoil the conversion today. A sharply higher AUD more than likely to counter any upside in the wheat futures markets in the states.

The US CPI came in a little lower than expected, still high at 7.1% but not the 7.3% as expected. Could some of the rally in wheat yesterday just been the punters parking some cash until after this news, maybe, but generally speaking, this news was bullish commodities.  The fall in the US dollar as the prospect of continued 25pt rate rises was eroded, had some punters talking the AUD into the 74c range by mid to late next year.

Canadian durum values at the farm gate level in Saskatchewan remain relatively flat. Bid on average at C$492 ex farm SE Sask. These values are about C$10 below the seasonal high posted back in November. Some analysts believe that the confirmation of lower Canadian production in last week’s StatsCanada report has been countered somewhat by the approaching Christmas period. The thought is that elevator and processors will deplete stocks held on site leading into the break. Thus, a potential reduction in short term demand. Although ex farm bids in SE Sask remain relatively flat there are reports of reduced bids from US processors and Italian millers alike.
Canadian exports have picked up, but still only average 91kt / wk. Marketing year to date exports sit at 1.6mt. The trade still expects to see Canadian exports reach 5.0mt to 5.3mt. This would result in a year-on-year increase in ending stock but not by much. Considering this year’s carry in number was very low, thanks to a drought in Canada in 2021, a low carry out this year is not exactly bearish durum prices.