Temperatures continue to be very hot across much of Argentina. The NW seeing the mercury well into the 40’s. 14-day precipitation across that region was about 25 – 40mm, we all know what evaporation rates are like with 40C temps. Towards the SE across the Pampas 14 day rainfall was a little better towards the east, but temperatures there are also hot, not as hot as the NW but well into the 30’s for the next week. The seven-day outlook for Argentina is hot and dry. Nothing like here, reports of a frost at Armidale and Walcha last night, 4.4C at Gunnedah, if this is summer, I’ll take it.
Further north in Brazil the seven-day forecast is wet, possibly a little too wet in the SE. Parts of Mato Grosso, where 20-30% of Brazilian soybeans are grown could see 60 to 150mm of rain over the next 7 days according to World Ag Weather predictions and the GFS model. Temperatures in Brazil are much more favourable than in Argentina. So, the only real threat to the soybean crop is flooding in the short term.  The sowing window for soybeans in Brazil is roughly between October and December, about 96% of the crop is now in the ground.
The far SE of Brazil has been dry but the forecast there is favourable. This rain should go a long way to ensuring that Brazil reach the current production estimate of 153.48mt, up 22.2% year on year. This is likely to weigh on world oilseed values as we move through the first half of 2023.
Looking at world soybean production, and rapeseed futures in Paris, it’s getting harder to talk up prices for oilseeds as we move through 2023 unless there are some big reductions in the S.American soybean crop. The smaller Argie crop, is at present, being easily countered by the increases in Brazil.

US wheat futures were weaker, the HRWW contract hit hardest. A winter storm is dumping much needed snow across the northern plains, the Dakotas and Minnesota and Illinois but as yet the model doesn’t show a lot further south across Kansas. Rain ahead of the change was also scant in Kansas.