US wheat futures were mixed, SRWW and spring wheat were softer at the exchanges and the PNW, while HRW was higher at the exchange and out of the PNW.
The punters are backing a little winter kill in the US. Kansas hasn’t got a lot of snow cover to protect the HRWW from this artic blast. The really cold weather hasn’t pushed much further south than Nebraska but there are locations in Kansas that have experienced -10C to -20C over the last 24 hours, so the potential for some winter kill is there. The dry soil conditions and the lack of snow cover are two factors that greatly increase the chance of winter kill. Some parts of northern and central east Kansas has received snowfall, not a lot, just 1″ to 2″ in some locations. This should help prevent kill a little but it’s not really deep enough or general enough to eliminate the threat 100% at these temperatures.
Quantifying the volume impacted is going to be hard prior to March though. As someone in the US said the other day, “winter wheat is like a cat, it has about 9 lives”.  The cold weather will persist across the Upper Midwest for another couple of days. Those SE of the Mississippi will see temperatures vary some 10C to 15C colder from the average for this time of year.

Germany confirmed a 7.6% increase in sown rapeseed area to 1.2mha. Although the EU continue to forecast a larger sown area to rapeseed for 2022-23 they are not predicting a significant increase in EU production. Total production is estimated at 20.4mt versus a crop of roughly 20.6mt this year. EU barley production is expected to increase from 58.5mt to about 60mt. Wheat production is also predicted to be higher for 2023 increasing 2.5mt to 143.2mt as Spain recovers from a dry period.