The January USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report is due out on the 12th US time, so we’ll see the data here on the 13th, Friday……. Black Friday….. Most the punters are talking increased wheat production estimates for both Russia and Australia in this report, so I don’t know about Black Friday, probably more like Red Friday if the USDA increase Aussie estimates as much as what ABARES did last week.

There will also be a lot of focus on the S.American soybean and corn production numbers, these will be the market movers. Argentine corn production should be lower. The only thing really preventing the USDA from reducing this would be the fact that a lot of their data is probably now 30 days old and the last couple of weeks in Argentina has decimated a lot of summer crop potential in some regions. Heat and moisture stress a major concern there. The forecast isn’t predicting any major change to the current situation either. Temperatures across most the major cropping regions in Argentina are expected to remain in the high 30’s for the week ahead with little to no rainfall predicted.
Further north in Brazil some of the earliest soybeans are coming off, yields are good, not great but it’s early days yet. Weather in Brazil has been wet, a stark contrast to their southern neighbour. There’s been reports of pod rot in parts of Mato Grosso Do Sul in Brazil, an area responsible for around 25% of Brazilian soybean production. This isn’t getting a lot of attention just yet, so it may just be some isolated fields, but too much of a good thing, as we know after 2022, can create its own issues.

The punters have been trying to pick a bottom in the US wheat futures market for a month now…… Paris milling wheat E6.00 lower on the nearby.