The WASDE report for January is out. Firstly, I’ll look through wheat. World opening stocks were increased by 550kt. Not as much as some had expected to see given the poor weekly sales and export numbers from both the US and Argentina. World production was pegged at 781.31mt an increase of 720kt, also not as much as many had expected to see. As the price of wheat fell it appears that consumption has / may increase, the USDA made a slight increase to world trade and consumption, both feed and domestic, and exports. The increases did not consume the total increase in supply though, the net results a 1.06mt increase in carry out to 268.39mt. This is still large enough to stifle a significant rally.
Drilling down into the wheat table you do kind of get the feeling that the report may have gotten a little overlooked during the Christmas period. There weren’t many changes apart from an increase in US carry in, but that was countered by increased US domestic use.  Argentine carry in was increased from 2.08mt to 2.35mt, this rolled through to an increase of 280kt in Argie carry out, probably unlikely given the current state of the drought there.
EU wheat production was increased 400kt, EU imports were increased 1mt (durum ??), exports were upped 500kt, the net result an increase of 900kt to their carry out, not a great result.
The biggest surprises were probably the lack of change to the Australian and Russian estimates, this is probably what drove US wheat futures higher last night. Could the bottom be in. Lower US ending stocks, after an 800kt increase in carry in is also interesting.
A reduction in carry in and carry out of major importing nation stocks was also a little bullish. Chinese ending stocks were reduced 280kt, from 144.36mt to 144.08mt, that’s still 53.68% of total world ending stocks that are “questionable” at best. There were a few adjustments to the Indian S&D, the net result an increase of 350kt to their carry out. So, net result a report that was less bearish wheat than expected I guess.