No US data this morning as Monday was a public holiday in the States. ICE and MATIF futures markets operated, while London joined the US in a day off. The Paris corn market was generally lower bar some movement either side of unchanged in the new crop futures. Milling wheat at Paris slipped E2.25 per tonne in the December 2024 slot. The Feb 2024 rapeseed futures contract was also lower, slipping E5.25 per tonne. Canola futures at Winnipeg were also lower, taking a lead from the Paris market but also feeling some pressure from an improving weather outlook for much of Saskatchewan this week. Much of the Canadian Prairies is expected to see 25 – 50mm of rain this week, perfect for emerging spring sown crops and dampening what had been a dry start to the season for many.
Heading south into the US the big corn states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, which have been a little dry up until now, could see a shower towards the west but the central and eastern corn belt could remain a little dry, keep an eye on the US corn crop ratings this week.
Rainfall in the USA is expected to fall most heavily across the parched regions of western Kansas, W.Nebraska, and the Panhandle. Flooding rain has been reported across the far NW of Texas over the weekend. That same area is expected to see the heavy rain continue and potentially spread across much of the western HRWW belt this week. These guys can’t take a trick, they say every bad drought is broken by a flood. Not what you really want when you are considering whether to harvest that terrible wheat crop, that may now only make feed grade.
The weather forecast Spain should see some good rain this week after weeks of dry weather. In much of Spain this will be a case of too little too late for winter crops but with 25-65mm falling across much of northern Spain and east into the south of France the prospects for spring sown crops there must surely improve. The forecast for Italy is again wet, keep an eye of this to trigger some better durum values mid-term.