12/7/23 Prices

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Global wheat futures markets were generally higher overnight.  Paris milling
wheat joined the push from the US and closed E2.75 higher in the Dec 23
slot. There were also good gains in both the Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg
canola futures contracts. 
The Feb24 Paris rapeseed contract gained E5.75/t. That's roughly equivalent
to a jump of AUD$9.66 when taking cross currency variations into account.
There was a significant decrease in canola basis here yesterday. Basis is
the amount of premium or discount the cash market has above or below the
underlying futures contract. Paris rapeseed / canola basis slipped AUD$8.58
yesterday to minus AUD$67.42 port Newcastle. 
With further gains in oilseeds across the board overnight we can only hope
that the local trade look to offer some of that basis reduction back today
in the form of a rally of more than $10. With good rains expected across the
US soybeans states over the next 7 days and a WASDE due out tonight, one
can't help but think was last night's gains in soybeans more technical in
nature than fundamental. 
US wheat futures found some technical trade ahead of the WASDE. Some punters
pointed to Russia's lack of interest in extending the Black Sea Grain
Corridor deal as reason to rally, talk about the boy who cried wolf. It's in
both Russia's and Ukraine's interest to keep the deal alive. You can't fund
a war without exports can you, thus it's also in the EU and USA's interest
to keep the corridor open. France recently made good arms sales to Ukraine
and the US have pumped billions into Ukraine from the start.
The weather forecast for Saskatchewan wasn't looking totally bleak
yesterday, well that turned around today. The next 7 days look to be very
dry. Heat will be mostly normal over the next seven days, but some models
show the last week of July pushing as much as 5 - 7C above normal. Cash bids
for new crop durum across SE Sask pushed C$7.52 higher on average for a
Dec23 lift. Milling wheat for the same lift was also higher, up C$4.34 on
average.

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