A few things to look at this morning, these include the Chinese extending
their decision to remove or reduce import tariffs on Australian barley. A
USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Report and reports that the UN has folded
and offered SWIFT access to Russia (in a form) in exchange Russia are to
extend the Black Sea Grain Corridor deal.
The easy stuff first, China had said all along the decision will take 3 - 4
months. The extension is taking it to their 4-month time frame, so not
exactly unexpected. As indicated 3 months ago, this will put the decision in
the market in the middle of the Canadian harvest. It will be interesting to
see if the Chinese actually buy much Canadian barley though. Canadian barley
is currently one of the most expensive barleys C&F China. Canada is also
suffering through a dry period so production will be less and domestic
demand there possibly much stronger.
At current values, CiF China, the cheapest is Ukraine, then Aussie (less
tariffs) and then Russian and then French. So, in theory the Chinese already
have 3 suppliers cheaper than Canada. Allowing Australian barley will create
more competition potentially, but prices may already be sharp enough.

The UN has suggested that a subsidiary of the Russian Rosselkhozbank could
be allowed to access SWIFT payment transactions for grain and fertilizer
sales if Russia extend the grain corridor deal for several months. Sanctions
are not set against Russian grain and fertilizer sales and Russian export
volumes have been good, but the payments system in place is said to be
limiting, according to Russia.

WASDE, wheat, world production lowered 3.52mt to 796.67mt, not small,
imports back 1.58mt, consumption up 3.31mt, ending stocks -4.18mt, still
big.