I checked the markets before heading to bed last night. The forums were all talking about how Russia had formerly withdrawn from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and how this was going to push the wheat market limit up in the morning.
To get up and see that the Chicago wheat market is actually down showed how little impact this deal was having on US wheat futures, unless it was of course favorable to have so.
One wire I read every morning actually failed to even mention the withdrawal of Russia from the deal. Instead concentrating on poor weekly US wheat exports and technical selling. The Russian deal was overlooked, the weather map for much of the US spring wheat belt and the Canadian Prairies was overlooked. It can often surprise an outsider just how US centric the US markets can be when it suites.

The weekly USDA crop progress report came out after the close. The US corn crop improved from 55% G/E last week to 57% G/E this week. Very timely with about half the crop now flowering. The weather map is also looking better with some showers expected across much of the central and eastern corn belt over the next 7 days. This rain might not save any stressed crops from the predicted heatwave coming in the last week of July though. US soybeans also improved, 55% G/E this week vs 51% last week. Cotton fell to just 45% G/E, 28% of the US cotton crop now rated P/VP. Sorghum harvest is 75% done in Texas and getting underway in Kansas. Winter wheat harvest is moving into the northern states, Kansas pegged at 71% in the bin, well behind the 94% of the 5 year average. 86% of the US spring wheat crop is in head, it’s rated 51% G/E, that’s up from last weeks 47%.
It might take a day of 3 to see if the Black Sea Grain Initiative is going to rot slowly or someone will find a band aid.