This weeks USDA crop progress report is likely to hurt corn and soybean futures a little. The trade had generally thought conditions would have improved given the recent better weather, the jump in beans was larger than expected. The corn rating jumped 2 points in the G/E rating, now at 59% G/E. Apart from some of the very early ratings during the first few weeks of sowing, this is the highest weekly G/E rating US corn has achieved this season. It’s also 1 point higher than the average rating for US corn last season. It’s not exactly backing up the 175.1bu/ac yield expectation on Fridays WASDE but it is suggesting that a 172-173bu/ac estimate is on the cards given the average yield last year.
The G/E rating for soybeans was increased from 54% last week to 59% this week. That’s a significant week on week jump and may put unwanted pressure on the vege oil complex this week. One might not think this after seeing Winnipeg canola futures close sharply higher, but Canadian canola has a few other localised issues to contend with. Chicago bean futures actually settled higher, the crop progress report was out after the close, so had little to no impact on the market. It looks likely to be a three way tug of way for canola though. Bullish news out of Canada, bearish news out of the US for soybeans, even though S.Dakota canola is looking worse week on week, and a softer close for Paris rapeseed futures.

Wet weather appears to have caused considerable damage to the last of the French wheat crop coming off in the north and to a large slice of the German milling wheat crop. Smaller producers like Poland and some of the Nordic region are also likely to have issues.
Rainfall in Russia over the last fortnight has mostly been towards the west where harvest progress has been good. The spring wheat regions towards Kazakhstan have dried out again with little to no rain finishing off a generally dry season. Potentially less durum for Turkey to import later in the season.