With 88% of the US corn crop in dough stage and 51% of the crop dented the USDA are pretty much calling the crop locked in. The G/E rating did slip a little in this weeks report, back from 47/11 last week to 47/9 this week, 2pts lower. After the heatwave many punters were expecting to see more damage being reflected in these ratings. The next two weeks will test the resolve of the USDA though. The GFS model predicts the heat is there to stay for at least another week or two. The hottest locations will generally be to the south of the corn belt so we may expect to see US soybeans suffer more than corn in the northern plains.
Around 91% of the US soybean crop is setting pods, so heat into the high 30’s is not ideal. Where the hottest days will be the crop is most advanced though. Missouri for instance is 89% set but is yet to see any leaf drop. The G/E rating for US soybeans was back just 1pt to 58% G/E.

Winnipeg canola futures were lower, Paris rapeseed was slightly higher. There is talk of EU exports to Canada, that’s a bit a back flip from the usual flow of things. Crush margins in Canada (for EU rapeseed) have been good and as the conditions in Canada got drier and the price of local canola increased the margin only got better. Chart attached. With basis to Paris here at -AUD$61 and basis to Winnipeg -AUD$219, one might expect to see this shrink if values at Winnipeg remain at this level. If I was a canola trader would I be ordering my new BMW, maybe not just yet.

US corn and soybean condition ratings may not have fallen as mush as expected, but the US sorghum condition rating was back from 42/9 last week to 37/8 this week, a decline of 6pts. Mind you 63% of the Texas crop is harvested. Kansas and Oklahoma are just 30%-40% colouring though.