The stronger AUD is becoming a bit of a thorn in our side yet again, putting on over 1c against the USD since this time last week.
It may not sound like much but when you look at something like ICE canola futures, the move in the AUD against the CAD overnight was worth about -AUD$2.62 / tonne, thus turning a CAD$1.00 move higher in nearby canola futures, into a -AUD$1.11 move lower in Aussie dollar terms day to day. The AUD was stronger against all our major trading partners, including the Euro.
Fortunately the Paris rapeseed contract closed stronger than it’s partner in Winnipeg. Nearby Paris rapeseed was up E5.50 per tonne, much more than the AUD could counter. Once the currency moves are taken into account, the day to day move in AUD/tonne for Paris is roughly AUD$6.27 / tonne higher.

It’s hard to reason why the strength in the AUD, apart from the apparent weakness in the USD. It could be as simple as catching a ride higher gold values. The fundamentals that us mere humans are living with in Australia see our day to day life remaining excessively expensive. Immigration and energy policies are to blame according to many, while other choose to look at the lack of competition or minimal domestic production. The macro view has mixed signals coming from Asia, if you believe what you read in the media China is more likely to fall of a cliff than Caroline Byrne, and also maybe getting some assistance.

International sorghum values were a little weaker in both AUD terms and USD terms out of the Gulf. Converting the move to a day to day price difference we come up with a fall of close to AUD$2.45, roughly just over half of this fall is being reflected in the Chinese sorghum Index too. US corn values were also lower into China. The only real corn seller seeing prices move higher was Ukraine. That may be more to do with execution issues than physical corn values though.
The April USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate report is out on the 11th US time. This may clear or muddy the water further.