The wires are not really giving a clear explanation as to why Kansas HRWW futures closed so much stronger than SRWW futures or MGEX spring wheat futures. Positioning ahead of tonight’s WASDE report, possibly. A reality check in the form of someone that can actually read a weather map, possibly, but we are talking wheat futures markets here, the algo traders may well be sun baking on the beach while the computers do their trading.
I’ll stick to the fundamentals and a good look at a weather map combined with record shorts in the futures market fueling this move. Much of Kansas and the Panhandle missed last weeks rain and the forecast for the next 7 days isn’t looking brilliant for that region either. The US forecast shows a good chance of heavy rain to the east of the HRWW belt and across much of the corn and soft red winter wheat belt, but big swaths of central and western Kansas, Iowa and Minnesota are tipped to miss this change. Still too early to kill anything with drought, but a fall of rain at grain fill is always handy. Temperatures are likely to be a little higher than average too but still only maxing out in the low to mid 20’sC, so not a problem. Europe, I’m torn between “rain makes grain” and too wet.