Chicago Soft red winter wheat staged a slight recovery last night dragging the premium grades higher as it did. Although closing the nearby slot +13.5c/bu (AUD$7.73) on Friday’s it did not stop a week on week decline of roughly AUD$3.29 / tonne at today’s money. Nearby hard red winter wheat futures saw a week on week decline of roughly AUD$4.72 while nearby spring wheat futures closed up AUD$2.43 week on week.
The drive higher in nearby futures came from technical positioning prior to the end of the month and the lead up to the expiry of the May contract. As well as some fundamental strength from both lower Russian wheat production estimates and lower government wheat stocks in India. Weather conditions in both the US hard red wheat and spring wheat belt are also less than ideal at present, but we are not yet past ANZAC day. Thus weather issues in US wheat are currently far from a deciding factor. The same could probably be said for the Russian wheat crop, although the area being impacted by the drier conditions there is probably much larger than the area being affected in the US.
Indian stocks were reduced significantly in an attempt to keep prices down last year. This has resulted in the lowest stocks level in years. Roughly half the volume is being carried when compared to the 10 year average volume. It’s an election year in India, the last thing the current Prime Minister would want to see is increasing food prices leading up to the election, not a winning strategy. Already we see the price of winter and summer pulses in India increasing.
As part of the overall fundamental support for wheat we can’t overlook further Russian missile attacks on Ukraine export terminals. In the most recent attack a container and packing terminal at Yuzhny, near Odessa, owned by Singapore trading house Wilmar International was hit.

Paris milling wheat futures more closely reflected the move in US HRWW / SW values, closing with an increase of just E0.25 nearby and +E1.25 for the December slot. The French wheat crop condition ratings was left unchanged week on week. Paris rapeseed futures crept lower.