US wheat futures continued higher, dragging export values out of the Pacific Northwest higher. The weather map is now taking centre stage in the US and Russia. The past 7 days has seen little rain fall across Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle. The forecast is for good falls across Missouri next week, but further west, towards central and western Kansas, the prediction is for much less, if any rain. There could be some good falls across eastern and north eastern Kansas, that’s generally the higher yielding parts of Kansas. This may limit the decline in crop condition ratings for the second week in May but many punters are now expecting to see a further reduction in the Kansas crop rating in next Tuesday’s USDA crop progress report.
The forecast expects to see falls of 50mm to 100mm across parts of the US corn and soybean belt. This may see sowing progress delayed across Missouri and Iowa, possibly being slightly supportive for corn values.
The forecast for the central and southern Russian winter wheat districts is also dry. Russian spring wheat may see 15mm – 30mm, potentially interrupting the last of the sowing of the spring wheat crop. The dry weather will also be seen across eastern Ukraine. There’s potential for further reductions in production estimates for both Russia and Ukraine in the days ahead. These regions are now seeing between 40% and 60% of their normal rainfall over the last 30 days, this dry weather occurring during a crucial stage of head development for winter wheat.
Eastern Turkey, where the durum is grown, is also seeing slightly less than ideal rainfall over the last 30 days. Reports out of Turkey continue to be for above average yields though, time will tell. The current heatwave in Turkey can’t be helping. Turkey also announced a 100kt durum sales tender, 3 grades on offer.
Reports out of Italy are not at all optimistic, crops in the SE and Sicily are said to be deteriorating quickly, luckily temperatures there are cooler than avg.
Algeria announced a tender for 50kt of durum wheat for delivery in June. Algeria usually call for 50kt offers, but generally purchase much, much more. Algerian tender results are not made public.